Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles, commented, “Despite a sluggish freight market, fleets have continued to invest in new equipment, mainly at replacement demand levels so far in 2024. We expect a modest rise in November backlogs once the final Class 8 market data is released later this month.
“Meanwhile, the election potentially could begin affecting the commercial vehicle market in the near term. The solid m/m increase in net orders might reflect some fleets choosing to place orders following the conclusion of the November U.S. elections, but the election impact might not end there. On November 25, President-elect Donald Trump announced plans to impose tariffs as one of his first executive orders, proposing a 25% tariff on all imports from Mexico and Canada and an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods. More than 40% of Class 8 trucks built for the U.S. market currently are built in Mexico.
“The announcement presents challenges for the commercial vehicle industry already grappling with preparations for 2027 U.S. EPA NOx regulations, further straining supply chains and costs. While the late-November announcement likely had minimal impact on orders for the month, orders over the next month or so could see a boost as fleets aim to preempt potential tariffs. If tariffs take effect in 2025Q1, OEMs may struggle to quickly ramp up production beforehand due to labor and supply chain constraints, especially during the slow production months of December to February. High Class 8 inventory levels could partially meet any surge in retail demand.”
