FTR reports preliminary North American Class 8 net orders totaled 15,700 units in March, declining 14% month-over-month (m/m) and 22% year-over-year (y/y). This figure was significantly below the seven-year March average of 24,760 net orders and represented a slightly larger-than-expected seasonal m/m decline. The vocational market accounted for the bulk of the m/m declines, although on-highway orders were predominantly weaker as well. Class 8 orders for the past 12 months totaled 277,927.
The implementation and continued threat of tariffs among North American trading partners combined with ongoing economic and freight market uncertainty have significantly dampened fleet investment in Class 8 trucks and tractors in recent months. This situation is further complicated by anticipated revisions to the U.S. EPA’s 2027 NOx regulations.
Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles, commented, “Persistent uncertainty in tariffs, the economy, freight, and regulations could notably disrupt fleet replacement cycles – potentially prompting fleets to either accelerate purchases ahead of expected price hikes or, more likely, delay investments until market conditions stabilize. The latter scenario appears supported by the 25% y/y decline in net orders for 2025 to date. Cumulative net orders for the 2025 order season (September 2024 through March 2025) were down by 8% y/y as well.
“New and pending U.S. tariffs and retaliatory tariffs are expected to significantly increase costs for North American Class 8 trucks, tractors, and related components. OEMs and suppliers may consider shifting production to mitigate tariff exposure, but such strategic adjustments are costly, complex, and time-consuming, further complicating industry planning.”
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