Trailer Orders — FTR Orders & Indices

U.S. Trailer Net Orders for February Reached Nearly 20,900 Units

Total U.S. trailer net orders in February declined 18% month-over-month (m/m) but increased 3% year-over-year (y/y), reaching 20,874 units. February represented the fourth consecutive month with net orders exceeding 20,000 units and positive y/y growth. However, a sluggish start to the 2025 order season (September 2024 through February 2025) means that cumulative net orders are still down 14% y/y at 124,737 units. Although many fleets prioritized purchasing power units over trailers in 2024, U.S. trailer net orders of 46,298 for 2025 to date have outpaced U.S. Class 8 net orders by 9,554 units. Whether this trend will continue in the near term is uncertain.

Total trailers built in February increased 23% m/m to 15,800 units but remained down 34% y/y. The stronger-than-seasonal m/m increase was likely driven by improved order levels in recent months and efforts by some OEMs to produce additional units ahead of potential tariffs expected in March or April. Trailer build for 2025 to date is down 34% y/y. With total trailer net orders outpacing production, backlogs increased by 4,298 units, or 4%, m/m. The sharper increase in production than in backlogs reduced the backlog/build ratio slightly to a still-healthy 7.8 months.

In November, total trailer net orders were well above total production, increasing backlogs by 10,124 units (+12% m/m) to 92,213 units. Lower m/m production and growing backlogs pushed the backlog/build ratio up to 7.0 months, the highest reading since February 2024. This indicates some decreasing pressure on OEMs to scale back production in the near term.

The commercial vehicle market continues to see a disconnect between demand for trailers and demand for trucks. North American Class 8 net orders increased 2% y/y in September-November 2024 while U.S. trailer net orders dropped by 42% y/y during the same period. For-hire fleets have been prioritizing investments in new power units over trailers in 2024 YTD, likely influenced by reduced profitability or shifts in trade cycles. OEMs have notably cut back on production, but if 2025 trailer orders remain well below expectations, some OEMs may need to extend or deepen production cuts into next year.

Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles, commented, “New and pending U.S. tariffs, along with retaliatory measures, pose significant risks to the North American trailer market. Tariffs will affect not only imported trailers but also domestic trailers, depending on the extent of imported materials, and the market effects could be broad-based. OEMs face higher production costs, tighter margins, and potentially slowing or stagnant demand. Suppliers may encounter supply chain disruptions and increased financial strain. Fleets could see higher trailer prices and longer lead times, prompting delayed purchases or shifts toward investing in power units once again. Overall, tariff-related uncertainty presents strategic challenges industrywide.

Another issue we will be watching is whether the Environmental Protection Agency’s recently announced plan to revisit its 2027 truck NOx emissions change disrupts fleet equipment strategies that otherwise presumably would have led to fleets prioritizing power unit orders over trailers by late this year, if not earlier.”

Dan Moyer

Senior Analyst, Commercial Vehicles

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U.S. Trailer Net Orders for February Reached Nearly 20,900 Units

Dan Moyer