U.S. trailer net orders in December increased by 11% month-over-month (m/m) and 7% year-over-year (y/y), reaching 25,334 units – the highest monthly net order total since October 2023. Although net orders recorded positive y/y growth for a second straight month, the overall 2025 order season continues to fall short of expectations due to a sluggish truck freight market. Total trailer net orders thus far for the 2025 order season (September-December 2024) are down 32% y/y to 75,976 units, an average of only 18,994 units per month. U.S. trailer net orders in 2024 totaled 157,085 units, down 27% from the 2023 total.
Total trailer production declined 10% m/m in December to 11,827 units, a relatively typical seasonal drop. However, production was down 40% y/y – 43% below the five-year December average – and was at the lowest monthly output since 2010. Total trailer production in 2024 was down 29% y/y to 223,375 units.
In November, total trailer net orders were well above total production, increasing backlogs by 10,124 units (+12% m/m) to 92,213 units. Lower m/m production and growing backlogs pushed the backlog/build ratio up to 7.0 months, the highest reading since February 2024. This indicates some decreasing pressure on OEMs to scale back production in the near term.
The commercial vehicle market continues to see a disconnect between demand for trailers and demand for trucks. North American Class 8 net orders increased 2% y/y in September-November 2024 while U.S. trailer net orders dropped by 42% y/y during the same period. For-hire fleets have been prioritizing investments in new power units over trailers in 2024 YTD, likely influenced by reduced profitability or shifts in trade cycles. OEMs have notably cut back on production, but if 2025 trailer orders remain well below expectations, some OEMs may need to extend or deepen production cuts into next year.
Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles, commented, “In December, total trailer net orders significantly outpaced production, increasing backlogs to 104,725 units. The combination of rising backlogs and reduced production month-over-month pushed the backlog/build ratio up to 8.9 months – the highest level since January 2024. While this increase is largely attributed to exceptionally low production levels, it also suggests easing pressure on OEMs to further scale back production in the near term.
“In 2024, North American Class 8 net orders rose 11% y/y while U.S. trailer net orders declined by 27% y/y. For-hire fleets (and, probably, private fleets, too) have prioritized investments in new power units over trailers, likely driven by reduced profitability or shifts in trade cycles. This trend looks like it is continuing as North American Class 8 net orders are up 8% y/y during the 2025 order season so far while U.S. trailer net orders for the same period fell 32% y/y.”
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