Trucking Conditions Index

FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index Declines in September with a Brighter Outlook

FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index declined in September to -2.47 from -1.39 in August as weakness in the principal freight dynamics – freight rates, utilization, and volume – offset lower fuel costs and slightly less unfavorable financing costs. The TCI has been positive only twice – in May and June of this year – since April 2022, but the current forecast envisions consistently positive readings through at least a two-year forecast horizon.

Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking, commented, “Aside from a near-term boost mostly related to falling diesel prices, we have not changed our Trucking Conditions Index forecast significantly in the wake of the election. The outlook continues to be more favorable for carriers than what they have experienced for well over two years. Our analysis indicates gradual but steadily rising capacity utilization leading to stronger freight rates in 2025. Just like everyone else, we’ll be watching closely to see exactly what trade and other economic policies are implemented and over what time frame. Some freight disruptions are likely due to tariffs and other factors, but it is not yet clear that those actions will do more than shift the timing of activity.”

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This index represents five major conditions in the U.S. full-load truck market. These metrics are combined into a single index that tracks the market conditions that influence fleet behavior.

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FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index Declines in September with a Brighter Outlook